“Supposedly, the expatriates have voted in larger numbers for this election to send out their voices to the two candidates,” said Carl Mir, a tax accountant in Belgian, who specialises in advising US expats.
He told International Adviser that expats may have realised this year that “every vote counts”, referring to former Democratic candidate Al Gore’s historic defeat to rival George W Bush in 2000 where just 537 votes in the state of Florida cost him the presidency.
The BBC poll of polls, which looks at the five most recent national polls and takes the median value, puts Clinton at 46% to Trump’s 43%.
Low voter turnout
Despite 2.6 million US expats being eligible to vote, traditionally expats have had the lowest turnout with just 15% of eligible overseas voters casting their ballots in 2012, compared with a 57% turnout in the US that year.
Having cast their ballot a month in advance, expats will wait with bated breath until Wednesday to find out who will become the next president of the United States, after one of the most controversial and scandal-ridden election campaigns in recent history.
Although it remains unclear what the expat vote numbers will be this, anecdotal evidence suggests it will be higher than previous elections spurred on by the difficulties in complying with Fatca, which requires every US expat to provide details of their worldwide income
Last week, it emerged that regardless of who wins, its unlikely either candidate will make any significant changes to the onerous reporting requirement imposed under Fatca – a sentiment Mir agrees with.
“Most expats do not expect much from the candidates concerning their own plights as expatriates but are voting for Clinton due to the fears of the world’s perception of the United States with a Trump presidency.
“Expatriates may also realise that their votes could count after Al Gore lost the election if only 500 more expatriates had voted in 2000,” he said.
Asia and EM outlook
Meanwhile, Paul Nixon, chief executive of wealth manager LGT Vestra US, which advises US expats from its offices in London, said the firm has told clients to “avoid the temptation of positioning portfolios in favour of a particular outcome”.
With Clinton seen as the “more moderate and predictable candidate” who is expected to maintain the ‘status quo’, Nixon predicts her president will have a “positive effect on the US equity market which doesn’t like uncertainty”.
“We would also see a Clinton victory being positive for Asia and Emerging Market equities as currently a certain amount of “Trump” is priced in, therefore we could see a relief rally.
“Rates are more likely to rise in December should Clinton become president which would be negative for US bonds and most likely neutral for the US dollar,” he told IA.
Meanwhile, Nixon predicts that a Trump presidency would be “negative for developed market equities, and particularly negative for Asia and emerging market equities”.
“Trump is positioned on the right of mainstream Republicans and a much wider range of possible policies are imaginable under his presidency.
He is known to be negative for global trade which means that China, Asia and emerging markets would be likely to take a hit,” he said.
Nixon adds that if Trump wins, it will be “good for gold as it would be seen as a safe haven for investors”.
