Lawrence agreed with McPherson that Trump’s anti-China rhetoric and talk of tariffs are probably bluster, but that most analysts do expect to Trump to seriously move away from Asia in terms of national security and influence.
“Trump abandoned the TPP and will be likely to pull out further. As such, smaller countries that might have relied on the US as a protector will look for stronger alliances with China.
“The New Silk Road and its associated projects will be ramped up and lead to a bigger increase in share of GDP for this part of the world. As such China will certainly benefit from US protectionism of this sort.”
Ernst also argued that over the longer-term China will have a greater role to play in the region as the US retreats and reduces its influence.
He explained that Chinese corporations are already beginning to extend their reach in this way: “Jack Ma, founder of e-commerce group Alibaba recently agreed to act as an adviser to the Malaysian government on its digital economy aspirations. This is the first external partner for the company.”
And work on the New Silk Road, a project that aims to connect China and the rest of Eurasia, is really ramping up.
Last year the first projects of the China-led development bank AIIB were financed and Chinese companies were involved in 64% of all M&A activity in Asia.
There are also numerous infrastructure projects planned for the region in 2017. These include the 420km China-Laos High-Speed Rail connecting Boten in Laos’s Luang Namtha Province on the Chinese border to the Thailand-Laos border crossing at Vientiane.
The Karachi-Hyderabad motorway will play a critical role in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and will see two additional lanes completed in 2017.
Similarly, The East Coast Rail Line aims to provide opportunities for Malaysia’s underdeveloped communities along its route and is set to launch in 2017.
So although the Yuan may seem weak and Chinese GDP growth remains comparatively slow, most analysts agree with NG: protectionist policies or otherwise, the future for China looks bright.
