AJ Bell Investments has removed its allocation to alternatives in its 2025 strategic asset allocation for MPS products, concluding they did not provide adequate diversification to portfolios.
Instead, the portfolios will operate on a combination of equity, cash and bond allocations. Particularly, this year will see a lift in non-GBP equities and an uptick in GBP cash & bonds.
Ryan Hughes (pictured), managing director at AJ Bell Investments, said: “We’ve had a very good look at this alternatives space and the types of assets that we consider to be investable, and ultimately, we concluded they are not adding to the portfolios, and therefore they shouldn’t be there.
“We understand there are lots of people out there that use different flavours of alternatives, but we have a very particular approach to that has to be available actively and passively, which rules out a lot. The simple, transparent, low cost, that rules out a lot more. We’ve also seen a lot of this stuff go very wrong over the years. It’s great while it works, and then it doesn’t. (It’s) in your portfolio to provide you the protection when your equities aren’t doing so well, and the alternative should step in, but in reality, it just doesn’t work like that.”
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Where, then, will the team find their diversifiers in 2025? In this case, the simple answer is the right one to the AJ Bell team.
“It’s nice and straightforward. It’s cash. You can get a return of 5% today from money market funds and cash. Do you actually need to look to alternatives to provide that low risk, uncorrelated return when you have got a great standing start from a very low risk asset?” Hughes said.
“People generally have been reaching into the alternative space, either when there’s been very low returns on cash available, or when they got concerned about fixed interest. At the moment, only one of those is probably true, which is the risk around fixed interest and where we go from here with inflation. But if you’ve got a standing start of roughly 5% from your cash for a low risk investor, bag the easy money. Over the years, a lot of people try and over-complicate it. Sometimes the right answer is staring you in the face, and it’s the simplest one.”
In the last financial year, AJ Bell Investments grew by 45% to £6.8bn in assets under management, including £1.5bn in inflows. Its yearly strategic asset allocation begins by using a mean variance optimiser to create portfolios near the efficient frontier. The AJ Bell team then makes tactical adjustments to account for market context.
The MPS options include both active and passive versions, as well as a blended version. Notably, 2024 saw the active MPS outperform the passive version for the second year in a row.
“I’m not sitting here saying I’m beating the drum for active management,” Hughes said. “But I think what it is showing is that there is pockets of the market where active management can do well and that careful manager selection can be beneficial to that.”
US equities
AJ Bell Investments will raise its allocation to US equities across all risk profiles, with the highest increase to its risk level three at 11%. In overall allocation, risk level one will have the smallest holding in US equities at 12%, with the highest at risk level four with 25%.
The decision is a reversal from 2024’s strategic asset allocation, where the team opted to take down the allocations to US equities. However, across the last year, the S&P 500 continued to climb over 26%.
As AJ Bell increases its allocation however, it proceeds with guardrails. It will introduce equal-weight products instead of simply market-cap products to protect against some of the concentration risks in the market.
James Flintoft, head of investment solutions, said: “We’re bringing in the equal weight to cushion that allocation, to make sure we’ve got the right time for diversification. The concentration is at a record high. Who knows how far it’s going to go? If you look at the top 20, that’s now 40% of the index, the top 10 is 37%, and the top three is over 20%.”
China allocation
Following the macroeconomic conditions of the past few years, the team also took a closer look at how China should play into its portfolio, not just in its allocation, but how it is viewed as an asset class.
Previously, China was placed within AJ Bell’s emerging markets and Asia Pacific ex-Japan categorisations. But in recent years, it has become clear to the team that the category is not necessarily reflective of where China sits. Instead, it has now been positioned as its own asset allocation.
While the move to separate China has been on the minds of the team for a while, it was not made possible until more recently as ETF products diversified. Now, the team feels there are enough individual China products, as well as emerging markets ex-Japan and ex-China products, to allow them to sit independently.
“This has been a really hot topic over the last couple of years that people want flexibility in their portfolios to dial up and down China exposure. We don’t have at this point a really specific view on China, but we’ve got the lever there should we need it. So we’ve put that as a standalone holding, whereas previously, if we wanted to do something very specific with China, it was very difficult to do,” Flintoft said.
Bonds
In the team’s 2024 allocation, the team found frustration in the performance of bonds, particularly when it came to the low risk end and the performance of US treasuries as markets went through a series of re-pricings on interest rates.
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“That’s something that we can sit here today and say, ‘hands up, a year ago, we got that wrong’,” Hughes said.
“We thought that there would be more interest rate cuts than there have been, and I don’t think we’re alone in that position. We had lots of conversations with managers saying that they expected plenty of rate cuts, and they haven’t come through. That’s definitely been painful for us at the lower risk end.”
The surprisingly sticky inflation and higher interest rates have led AJ Bell to cut a significant amount of its exposure to non-GBP cash & bonds. The lowest level of risk now has an exposure of just 9% to the sector, with the highest risk having none.
Last year also presented surprises in the success of high yield, which AJ Bell had decreased its exposure to in 2024.
“We didn’t have enough high yield. We took high yield down a little bit last year and allocated that to investment grade. We were concerned about spread levels last year, because we thought they were pretty tight. They just got a whole lot tighter,” Hughes said.
Looking ahead
For 2025, the AJ Bell team predicts an average case one-year return of 5% for its lowest risk portfolio, and 7.5% for its highest risk portfolio. But the team emphasises that while it’s pleasant to have a high return, it is also important to deliver that return in the right way, and in a comfortable way for investors.
“We’ve all been on plenty of flights, and there are certain people that when the captain says fasten your seat belt signs, they absolutely panic. I’m one that grips the seat and the knuckles go white and I can’t stand any kind of turbulence. There are other people that are blissfully unaware and just sleep all the way through it,” Hughes said.
“That is exactly the same with markets. What we need to make sure is that those people that are in our lower risk funds, that want to grip the seat every time there’s a bit of market noise, they actually can be comfortable and still reach their destination. To the same point, we need to make sure that those people that are happy to sleep through all those lumps and bumps while the seat belt sign is on still reach the destination have the right kind of experience too.”
This story was written by our sister title, Portfolio Adviser
